Multiple Meteorological Agencies Forecast High Probability of El Niño Development in 2026 with Potential Global Climate Impacts

Apr 24, 2026, 09:45

Introduction

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and several national weather services have issued forecasts indicating a high likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging in 2026. This periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to influence global temperature and precipitation patterns, with potential consequences for agriculture and extreme weather events.

Main Body

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting nine to twelve months. According to the WMO, after a period of neutral conditions at the start of 2026, climate models have aligned strongly, leading to high confidence in the onset of El Niño between May and July, followed by further intensification. The WMO''s Chief of Climate Prediction, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, stated that models indicate a rapid warming trend in the Nino 3.4 region. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimated a 61% chance of El Niño developing from May to July, while Japan''s weather bureau assigned a 70% probability for the northern hemisphere summer. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicted below-median rainfall in eastern cropping regions from May to August. The India Meteorological Department forecast a below-normal monsoon season for 2026, with rainfall expected at 92% of the long-period average. Chinese weather officials anticipated El Niño conditions persisting through the end of the year after emerging in May. Earlier analyses, including those from the Union of Concerned Scientists, noted that a strong El Niño—sometimes referred to informally as a ''super El Niño''—could temporarily push global average temperatures above 1.5°C relative to preindustrial levels, and some models indicated a non-zero probability of exceeding 2°C. However, such temporary breaches are distinct from long-term warming trends. The UK Met Office expressed growing confidence that the 2026 event could rank among the strongest of the century, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C above normal. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center gave a 50% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño developing between November 2026 and January 2027. Projected regional impacts vary. El Niño typically brings drought and heat to Australia, Southeast Asia, India, southern Africa, and parts of South America, including the Amazon. Conversely, it tends to increase precipitation in the southern United States, parts of the Middle East, south-central Asia, and northern South America. In the Atlantic, hurricane activity is often suppressed, while Pacific tropical storms become more frequent. Agricultural analysts noted that while heavier rains in the Americas could offset some losses in Asia, excessive moisture might disrupt harvests and degrade grain quality. Concerns were also raised about high fertilizer costs potentially compounding yield losses in drought-affected regions. Experts emphasized that each El Niño event is unique, and spring forecasts carry inherent uncertainty due to natural seasonal transitions and overall warming trends that can skew baselines. Climate scientist Tom Di Liberto remarked that the risk is high enough to warrant concern, though the outcome is not a certainty.

Conclusion

In summary, multiple authoritative meteorological agencies project a high probability of El Niño conditions commencing in mid-2026, with a significant chance of a strong event. While the precise intensity and regional impacts remain uncertain, the forecasts provide a basis for preparatory measures in vulnerable regions. The situation underscores the interplay between natural climate variability and long-term anthropogenic warming.

Vocabulary Learning

anomalies
Deviations from the normal or expected value, especially in scientific measurements.異常，反常現象（尤指科學測量中的偏離正常值）
Example:Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2°C above normal.
compounding
Making a problem or situation worse by adding to it.使惡化，加劇（問題或情況）
Example:High fertilizer costs are potentially compounding yield losses in drought-affected regions.
inherent uncertainty
Uncertainty that is a natural and inseparable part of a process or forecast.固有的不確定性（過程或預測中自然且不可分割的不確定性）
Example:Spring forecasts carry inherent uncertainty due to natural seasonal transitions.
intensification
The process of becoming more intense, severe, or extreme.加劇，強化
Example:Climate models indicate a rapid warming trend followed by further intensification.
onset
The beginning or start of something, especially something unpleasant or significant.（尤指不愉快或重要事件的）開始，發生
Example:The WMO expressed high confidence in the onset of El Niño between May and July.

Sentence Learning

According to the WMO, after a period of neutral conditions at the start of 2026, climate models have aligned strongly, leading to high confidence in the onset of El Niño between May and July, followed by further intensification.
This sentence features a main clause "climate models have aligned strongly" preceded by a prepositional phrase "According to the WMO" and an adverbial clause "after a period of neutral conditions at the start of 2026". It then uses two participial phrases: "leading to high confidence..." (present participle indicating result) and "followed by further intensification" (past participle indicating subsequent action). The structure demonstrates complex embedding of non-finite clauses.本句包含主要子句「climate models have aligned strongly」，前面有介詞短語「According to the WMO」及狀語從句「after a period of neutral conditions at the start of 2026」。隨後使用了兩個分詞短語：「leading to high confidence...」（現在分詞表示結果）和「followed by further intensification」（過去分詞表示後續動作）。此結構展示了非限定從句的複雜嵌入。
Earlier analyses, including those from the Union of Concerned Scientists, noted that a strong El Niño—sometimes referred to informally as a ''super El Niño''—could temporarily push global average temperatures above 1.5°C relative to preindustrial levels, and some models indicated a non-zero probability of exceeding 2°C.
This compound-complex sentence begins with a noun phrase "Earlier analyses" modified by a reduced relative clause "including those from the Union of Concerned Scientists". The main verb "noted" introduces a that-clause containing a parenthetical interruption (dashes) with a reduced relative clause "sometimes referred to informally as a 'super El Niño'". The that-clause has a compound predicate: "could temporarily push... and some models indicated...". The second clause "some models indicated a non-zero probability of exceeding 2°C" uses a gerund phrase "of exceeding 2°C" as a postmodifier.這是一個並列複合句，開首名詞短語「Earlier analyses」由簡化關係從句「including those from the Union of Concerned Scientists」修飾。主要動詞「noted」引導一個that從句，其中包含破折號插入的簡化關係從句「sometimes referred to informally as a 'super El Niño'」。該that從句有並列謂語：「could temporarily push... and some models indicated...」。第二個子句「some models indicated a non-zero probability of exceeding 2°C」使用動名詞短語「of exceeding 2°C」作為後置修飾語。
The UK Met Office expressed growing confidence that the 2026 event could rank among the strongest of the century, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C above normal.
This sentence has a main clause "The UK Met Office expressed growing confidence" followed by a that-clause "that the 2026 event could rank among the strongest of the century". The that-clause is further modified by a prepositional phrase "with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C above normal", which contains a present participial phrase "exceeding 2°C above normal" acting as a postmodifier of "anomalies". The structure uses a non-finite clause to add detail.本句有主要子句「The UK Met Office expressed growing confidence」，後接that從句「that the 2026 event could rank among the strongest of the century」。該that從句再以介詞短語「with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C above normal」修飾，其中包含現在分詞短語「exceeding 2°C above normal」作為「anomalies」的後置修飾語。此結構使用非限定從句添加細節。
Agricultural analysts noted that while heavier rains in the Americas could offset some losses in Asia, excessive moisture might disrupt harvests and degrade grain quality.
This is a complex sentence with a main clause "Agricultural analysts noted that..." where the that-clause itself is a compound sentence with a concessive subordinate clause introduced by "while". The structure is: "while heavier rains... could offset... , excessive moisture might disrupt...". The concessive clause sets up a contrast. The main verb "noted" is in past tense, and the that-clause uses modal verbs "could" and "might" to express possibility.這是一個複雜句，主要子句為「Agricultural analysts noted that...」，其中that從句本身是一個並列句，帶有由「while」引導的讓步從句。結構為：「while heavier rains... could offset... , excessive moisture might disrupt...」。讓步從句建立對比。主要動詞「noted」為過去式，that從句使用情態動詞「could」和「might」表達可能性。
Experts emphasized that each El Niño event is unique, and spring forecasts carry inherent uncertainty due to natural seasonal transitions and overall warming trends that can skew baselines.
This sentence features a main clause "Experts emphasized that..." with a that-clause that is a compound sentence: "each El Niño event is unique, and spring forecasts carry inherent uncertainty". The second independent clause is followed by a prepositional phrase "due to natural seasonal transitions and overall warming trends" which contains a relative clause "that can skew baselines" modifying "trends". The use of "due to" introduces a causal relationship, and the relative clause adds specification.本句主要子句為「Experts emphasized that...」，that從句是一個並列句：「each El Niño event is unique, and spring forecasts carry inherent uncertainty」。第二個獨立子句後接介詞短語「due to natural seasonal transitions and overall warming trends」，其中包含關係從句「that can skew baselines」修飾「trends」。使用「due to」引入因果關係，關係從句增加具體說明。